North Idaho Real Estate Market Update 2023
REAL ESTATE MARKET UPDATE SEPT 2023
Coeur d’Alene Housing Market Update September 2023
Understanding the Relationship Between Interest Rates and Inflation
In the complex world of economics, one of the most crucial relationships that can significantly impact our financial lives is the interplay between interest rates and inflation. These two economic factors are like partners in a dance, each influencing and responding to the movements of the other. Understanding this relationship is essential for governments, central banks, investors, and the general public, as it can have a profound impact on savings, investments, and real estate investments.
If you have plans to purchase or sell a home this year, chances are you’re keeping a keen eye on mortgage rates. Gaining insights into the correlation between mortgage rates and inflation can provide valuable perspectives on potential directions for mortgage rates in the near future.
What Could the Future Hold for Mortgage Rates?
Since early 2022, the Federal Reserve has been diligently working to combat rising inflation. This development carries significance due to the historical correlation between inflation and mortgage rates, as depicted in the graph to the below:
This graph illustrates a consistently observed relationship between inflation and mortgage rates. If you examine the left side of the graph, you’ll notice that whenever inflation experiences a notable increase highlighted in blue), mortgage rates tend to follow suit shortly afterward (highlighted in green).
This graph highlights the most recent upsurge in inflation (circled in red), closely trailed by a corresponding increase in mortgage rates. While inflation has shown some signs of moderation this year, mortgage rates have not yet mirrored a similar decline. It also shows that historically mortgage rates can be much higher. In fact, 20 years ago in 2002, we saw interest rates climb to above 7%. So while rates may seem high they are still historically relatively normal.
In light of this historical trend, it suggests that the market may be anticipating a future scenario where mortgage rates align with the trajectory of inflation and begin to decrease. While it’s impossible to predict mortgage rates with absolute certainty, the trend of moderating inflation does lend credence to the possibility of lower mortgage rates in the near future.
Coeur d’Alene Housing Market
- Number of Solds down 12.5%.
- Absorption Rate up 30% YoY and is currently 5.55.
- Median Sale Price up 5.3% YoY to $550,000.
Locally we continue to see the number of listings steadily increase, and the number sales steadily decrease bringing us to essentially a balanced market (with 5.5 months of inventory).
Buyers: You still have negotiating power that hasn’t been experienced for quite some time. If you need a mortgage, you have options:
- You can use this opportunity to negotiate the price of your purchase down, and refinance if rates go down in the near future.
- If you are payment conscious, you can use seller concessions to have the seller pay your rate down and lock in a payment you feel comfortable with.
Sellers: If you need to sell, you still likely have significant equity in your home, as median home prices remain in the elevated range it reached in 2021.
Our offices in Coeur d’Alene and Sandpoint have many experienced agents that work with local lenders to find the right mortgage products and the right monthly payment for buyers. This experience can also be helpful to home sellers searching for the right buyer. While we do work with many cash buyers, having a plan to incentivize buyers wanting or needing a loan is important to the strategy for selling your home in the current market. Contact us to discover the best strategies for home sellers looking to maximize their buyer pool.
If you want to know how this changing housing market will affect the sale or purchase of a home please reach out to your Keller Williams agent.
Interested in more local market information?
Visit our contact page and get help finding more information on current market conditions in North Idaho.
The representations in this report are based on data generated from the database of the Coeur d’Alene Multiple Listing Service, Inc. for the time periods specified. Data maintained by the Association or its Multiple Listing Service may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. Monthly statistics are now retrieved on the 3rd business day instead of the 8th business day. MLS Rules still allow 7 business days to close out listings. Some information may be incomplete. Data compilation not to be reproduced without expressed written consent from the CDA Multiple Listing Service.
SOURCES: https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms | https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
Housing Market Update July 2023: Home Sales and Inventory Pick Up, Rates Remain The Key
The number of homes sold in the month of June were up about 0.5% from this time last year. That may not seem significant, but it is considering 2023 sales numbers have been lagging last year consistently by about 30% for many months. However, new active listings are still out pacing demand as months of inventory increased by almost a whole month in June alone, 1.7 months since April, and currently sits at 5.03. The market still favors sellers, but is consistently moving towards becoming balanced (6 months of inventory), something we haven’t seen since well before 2020.
This increase in inventory, along with interest rate fluctuations curbing demand, has stalled the median home price gains we saw in April and May. Median home price dropped in June to $500,000.
Interest Rates
Good inflation numbers came out last week, as CPI (including food and energy) dropped to 3%. Conventional interest rates responded and dropped sharply to approx. 6.625%, from over 7% earlier this month. The FED is walking a fine line between cooling inflation while not throwing the economy into a recession. We are still looking towards the fall for rates to move down in a meaningful way. Until then, we have seen agents able to negotiate concessions, used to buy their clients interest rates down under 5%.
Though there is downward pressure on home prices, and buyers continue to have some negotiating power that hasn’t been experienced for quite some time, most sellers still have significant equity in their home. It’s still very much a good time for buyers and sellers to enter the market, especially if they are partnered with the right real estate agent.
If you want to know how this changing housing market will affect the sale or purchase of a home please reach out to your Keller Williams agent.
If you want to know how this changing housing market will affect the sale or purchase of a home please reach out to your Keller Williams agent.
The representations in this report are based on data generated from the database of the Coeur d’Alene Multiple Listing Service, Inc. for the time periods specified. Data maintained by the Association or its Multiple Listing Service may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. Monthly statistics are now retrieved on the 3rd business day instead of the 8th business day. MLS Rules still allow 7 business days to close out listings. Some information may be incomplete. Data compilation not to be reproduced without expressed written consent from the CDA Multiple Listing Service.
Housing Market Update May 2023: Inventory Remains Low, Prices Remain Stable, Despite Interest Rates
The number of home sales in Coeur D’Alene remains 30% below last year’s pace, but that does not mean home values are plummeting. In fact, just the opposite is happening. Home prices in the Coeur d’Alene market are inching back up (ended April at $515,000). If the market follows seasonal trends, we could see the median home price up above $550,000 by the end of summer, and will show that the worry over large price declines in the housing market were misplaced. Despite entering into an era of high interest rates in the high six percent range, inventory levels seem to be following seasonal trends.
What will lower interest rates this summer and fall mean for the housing market?
While interest rates remain high for the moment, this may change moving forward. With the core inflation number dropping below 5% (4.9%) in April for the first time in two years this may affect interest rates. Historically as inflation rates fall, so do interest rates. If this downward inflation trend continues we may see interest rates fall by over 1% during the summer or fall months. With a drop in rates of that magnitude, and continued high employment numbers, we could see housing prices spike back to the historic levels we saw last May. This is why it is so important for home buyers to act now. If a buyer waits to purchase they may once again be caught in a hot housing market with very little selection and competing bids.
If you want to know how this changing housing market will affect the sale or purchase of a home please reach out to your Keller Williams agent.
Interested in more local market information?
Visit our contact page and get help finding more information on current market conditions in North Idaho.
The representations in this report are based on data generated from the database of the Coeur d’Alene Multiple Listing Service, Inc. for the time periods specified. Data maintained by the Association or its Multiple Listing Service may not reflect all real estate activity in the market. Monthly statistics are now retrieved on the 3rd business day instead of the 8th business day. MLS Rules still allow 7 business days to close out listings. Some information may be incomplete. Data compilation not to be reproduced without expressed written consent from the CDA Multiple Listing Service.
Housing Market Update April 2023 – North Idaho
As 1st Quarter Comes to a Close, Interest Rate Buydowns, and Increased Buyer Leverage Remains the Story of the Coeur d’Alene Housing Market
The 1st quarter of 2023 is in the books and the Coeur D’Alene housing market seems to be continuing along seasonal and recent market trend lines. The Coeur d’Alene MLS statistics from March told a familiar story of inventory increasing over 55% YoY (year over year), units sold down 21% (YoY) and median sales price down 10% (currently still hovering at approx. $479K). These stats, along with the current days on market of 95 and absorption rate up 161% YoY (currently 2.95), points to a seller’s market where buyers have more leverage than any time in recent memory. Though interest rates have been bouncing up and down (seems to be as much volatility in rates as in the current Coeur d’Alene weather forecast), many buyers are seeing opportunities to negotiate concessions that are favorable.
So, what can we do to help you navigate these market conditions?
Interest Rate Buydowns
With up to 3 times the impact on monthly mortgage payments when compared to lowering the sale price of a home, interest rate buydowns are often the perfect tool to both increase affordability for buyers and help sellers lock in a deal.
Many recent deals have included the seller paying for the buyer’s buydowns and even agreeing to further concessions, including paying for closing costs and lowering the sale price of their home. This is possible for sellers as though the median home prices have decreased approx. 10% since last March, sellers have still seen an approx. 35% increase since April of 2020.
Make Your Home Stand Out from the Crowd
As buyers have more choices, are more empowered and pickier than at any point in the last three years, it is important for sellers to make their listing as attractive as possible. Ensuring that your listing’s photos, media, marketing and showing availability are all on point is paramount to a listing’s saleability.
Agents at Keller Williams Coeur D’Alene are uniquely positioned to help meet your real estate needs, whether you are buying or selling. Though sales are down market wide in our area, we represented more clients and closed more business last month then this time last year. And we represented more clients and closed more resale business than any brokerage in Coeur D’Alene in 2022. We’d love to help you!
Interested in more local market information?
Visit our contact page and get help finding more information on current market conditions in North Idaho.
Housing Market Update March 2023 – North Idaho
Navigating a Complex Housing Market: The Real Estate Agent You Choose Matters!
The current housing market has continued to adjust to a more normal, more balanced market. These adjustments have been shaped by higher interest rates, resulting in lower demand and a gap between seller and buyer expectations. This is why, more than ever before, having a knowledgeable real estate professional on your side is paramount to getting the most out of this mixed housing market.
In February, the FED gave no indication that they were going to stop raising the FED fund rate, which negatively impacted the bond market, translating to further mortgage rate hikes. However, mortgage rates are down about ½% since the end of February due to inflation easing and in reaction to fears of a banking crisis. This has resulted in some frustration for buyers who are payment sensitive. However, by choosing the right professional who is experienced with negotiating price adjustments and employing strategies like Interest Rate Buydowns, most buyers will still find it a fine time to buy.
Sellers have also needed to take into account these market conditions. The latest Coeur d’Alene housing market stats came out at the end of February that saw median home prices drop below $500,000 for the first time since it broke that threshold in June of 2021 (median home price currently $479,500). Units sold were also down 24%. That’s still 25% better than January’s year-over-year sales numbers. With the average days on market increasing, a true professional will help guide sellers and market their home to maximize sale price.
For sellers, choosing a real estate professional that will provide top quality service with high quality photography, strategic negotiation skills and the ability to reel in buyers is integral to a listing’s success. KW Coeur d’Alene is leading the charge representing more resale clients than any other brokerage in the area. If you are curious what your home is worth in the current market conditions or want to learn more about how buying down your interest rate can make your home purchase more affordable, reach out to one of our experienced agents. We’d love to help you!
Housing Market Update February 2023 – North Idaho
Market Continues To Stabilize: Great Opportunity For Buyers. Sellers Still Making Significant Profits.
North Idaho home prices continue to stabilize as inventory, days on market and months of sales have settled into a more normal seasonal rhythm. These current market conditions are creating opportunities for buyers we haven’t seen in years, while still being quite profitable for sellers.
Buyers Have Negotiating Power
High demand, low interest rates and low inventory created a frenzy of activity in the last 3 years, causing median home prices to increase approx. 75% during that time. At the beginning to middle of last year, if a buyer had interest in securing a property, they needed to be ready and willing to make their strongest offer first, at or above asking, and still be prepared to be out bid by a competing offer.
Median home prices peaked in May and slid for 4 months straight (approx. -10% in that time), before hitting and stabilizing in the $515,000 – $530,000 range for the last four months. (currently $525k). Interest rate hikes were the catalyst that pushed affordability past the threshold that buyers were willing to go, severely affecting demand and with it the number of sales.
With the straight line price appreciation experienced in the last three years clearly in the rear view mirror, and inventory (1,510 active listings), Days on Market (110 days), and months of sales (2.77 mo.) all hovering around normal seasonal averages, sellers realize they will have to provide buyers some concessions to get their home sold. Buyers currently have a window of opportunity, with negotiating power they haven’t had for years.
However, we’ll still be paying close attention to the FED’s reaction to inflation, Consumer Price Index, & Unemployment data in the next few months. If the FED lowers rates in a significant way (see January update), this window may close.
A Typical Deal: Buyers & Sellers Both Win
We have seen many of our buyers negotiating with the seller to “buy down” their interest rate to make their mortgage payment more affordable. In the example to the right the buyer’s agent negotiated both a $34,000 reduction in price and $13,000 to permanently buy down their interest rate on their loan from 5.99% to 3.99% in their first year and 4.99% for the remainder of their loan on a $455,000 home. Paying down the interest rate in this way will affect a buyer’s affordability by nearly three fold when compared to a price concession.
Sellers Still Have Plenty of Equity
With buyers having some room to negotiate and home prices normalizing what is in it for sellers? Despite median home prices being down approx. 10% from the peak, many sellers have experienced a 75% increase in their homes equity. That’s an approx. 75% increase in 36 months! This means most homeowners still have at least $200,000 in equity in homes purchased prior to April of 2020.
If you are curious what your home is worth in the current market conditions or want to learn more about how buying down your interest rate can make your home purchase more affordable, reach out to one of our experienced agents. We’d love to help you!
Interested in more local market information?
Visit our contact page and get help finding more information on current market conditions in North Idaho.
Housing Market Update January 2023 – North Idaho
North Idaho Real Estate Market Set-up For A Strong Year
North Idaho median home prices seem to have settled in at approx. $515,000 after fluctuating between $500k and $550k in the last 5 months, further solidifying the North Idaho housing market’s shift to be more balanced. This is on the tail end of a period with almost a straight line increase in home prices that started prior to the pandemic (home prices have increased approx. 75% since October 2019). Though prices have dropped about 10% in the previous seven months, December median home prices are still up 3.0% year over year.
The number of homes sold is taking its seasonal downward trend, and is down approx. 50% from this time last year (267 sold in December). Sales are also down by about 130 units from pre-pandemic levels.
Although inventory levels have shot up 75% from last year, and we’ve seen a huge decrease in the number of sales, inventory remains just below pre-pandemic levels (1,647 active listings as of October 31st) and looks to be making the normal seasonal decrease.
Months of inventory have followed the decrease in active listings down to approx. 3.18 months of inventory. This is an approx. 150% YoY (year over year) increase, and is slightly higher than pre-pandemic (Dec. 2019) levels. This points to the North Idaho real estate market shifting to be more balanced, while still in favor of sellers.
How Interest Rates Are Affecting The Market:
It seems the FED’s rate hikes have produced their desired effect to cool the market. However, interest rates have dropped in the past several weeks and settled around 6.25% (no points) and 5.99% for FHA & VA loans (no points).
The theme of the current market is closing cost concessions. We are seeing sellers happy to pay closing costs for buyers which will affect a buyer’s affordability by nearly three fold when compared to a price concession.
The sentiment industry wide for the direction of rates seems to conclude that we could see rates drop significantly in the first half of 2023. Fannie Mae published a recent housing report indicating rates could fall below 5% in 2023, while mortgage applications increased by over 27% in the last week.
All of this data points to a market here in North Idaho that is actively shifting to be more balanced. If inventory remains at, or close to historic norms, we can expect to see home prices continue to stabilize. We’ll be watching this closely along with the FED’s reaction to inflation, Consumer Price Index, & Unemployment data in the next few months.
KW Coeur d’Alene agents closed 40% more resale business in 2021 than any other brokerage in the market, and have consistently been able to structure deals that are still favorable to our sellers, while helping to offset the rate increases for our buyers making it a win/win for both parties.
Contact the KW agent you have been working with for more information about how we are able to meet our clients’ real estate goals in the current market.
Interested in more local market information?
Visit our contact page and get help finding more information on current market conditions in North Idaho.
Housing Market Update November 2023 – North Idaho
North Idaho Real Estate Market is Settling Into Balance
North Idaho median home prices rebounded from a four month and approx. $50k decline that started in June (currently $530,000). This jump helps solidify the North Idaho housing market’s shift to be more balanced and ends a period of almost a straight line increase in home prices that started prior to the pandemic (home prices have increased approx. 75% since October 2019). Though prices have dropped about 8% in the previous four months, October median home prices are still up 3.9% year over year.
The number of homes sold has dipped 35.5% from this time last year (410 sold in October) and are down about the same number of sales to pre-pandemic levels.
Though inventory levels have shot up 43.5% from last year, and we’ve seen a huge decrease in the number of sales, inventory remains just below pre-pandemic levels (2,314 active listings as of October 31st) and looks to be making the normal seasonal decrease.
The absorption rate [See explanation of Absorption Rate in the graphic to the left] has settled and has remained around 4 [months] for four straight months. This is an approx. 100% YoY increase, but points to the North Idaho real estate market shifting to be more balanced, though still slightly in the favor of sellers.
FED Rate Hikes
It seems the FED’s rate hikes have produced their desired effect to cool the market. Interest rates have dropped in the past several weeks and settled around 6.625% from the recent rate increase earlier this fall. The sentiment industry wide seems to be, we could see rates drop significantly in the first half of 2023. Fannie Mae published a recent housing report indicating rates could fall below 5% in 2023.
All of this data points to a market here in North Idaho that is actively shifting to be more balanced. If inventory remains at, or close to historic norms, we can expect to see home prices continue to stabilize. We’ll be watching this closely along with the FED’s decision on interest rates in the spring and its actual effect on buyers.
KW Coeur d’Alene agents had over $14 million in sales over the last two months and have been able to structure deals that are still favorable to our sellers, while helping to offset the rate increases for our buyers making it a win/win for both parties.
Contact the KW agent you have been working with for more information about how we are still able to meet our clients’ real estate goals in the current market.
Interested in more local market information?
Visit our contact page and get help finding more information on current market conditions in North Idaho.
Housing Market Update: What to Expect in North Idaho
North Idaho, with its stunning landscapes, recreational opportunities, and quality of life, has become an increasingly popular destination for homebuyers. As the housing market experiences fluctuations and shifts nationwide, it’s essential to understand what to expect from a housing market update specifically in North Idaho. This article will delve into key factors that influence the local housing market and provide insights for prospective buyers and sellers in the region.
- Rising Demand and Limited Inventory: Like many desirable areas, North Idaho has seen a surge in demand for housing. The region’s natural beauty, access to outdoor activities, and a more relaxed lifestyle have attracted homebuyers from various locations. However, this high demand has resulted in limited inventory, which can create a competitive market environment. Potential buyers should be prepared for multiple offers and the need for prompt decision-making.
- Price Appreciation: With the increased demand and limited supply of homes, North Idaho has witnessed significant price appreciation in recent years. Home prices have been steadily rising, often exceeding the national average. Sellers can benefit from favorable conditions and potentially secure higher returns on their investments. However, buyers should be aware of the competitive pricing landscape and set realistic expectations when budgeting for their home purchase.
- New Construction and Development: To meet the growing demand, new construction projects are underway across North Idaho. Developers are building new residential communities, offering a range of housing options, from single-family homes to townhouses and condominiums. These new developments aim to provide opportunities for buyers to enter the market and address the housing shortage. Prospective buyers should keep an eye on these new projects and consider the benefits of purchasing a newly constructed home.
- Relocation and Remote Work: The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the adoption of remote work, allowing individuals to live and work from anywhere. North Idaho’s scenic beauty and outdoor recreational activities have made it an attractive destination for those seeking a change of scenery and a better work-life balance. The influx of remote workers and relocating families has contributed to the increased demand for housing in the area.
- Mortgage Rates and Affordability: Mortgage interest rates play a crucial role in the housing market. While rates remain historically low, they have been gradually inching up. However, the affordability of homes in North Idaho can still be favorable compared to certain metropolitan areas. Buyers should work closely with lenders to secure the best mortgage rates and explore various financing options to make their homeownership dreams a reality.
As North Idaho’s housing market continues to evolve, it’s crucial to stay informed and understand the key factors that influence the local real estate landscape. Rising demand, limited inventory, price appreciation, new construction, and the effects of remote work all shape the dynamics of the market. Whether you’re looking to buy or sell a home in North Idaho, working with a knowledgeable real estate professional who understands the nuances of the local market can help you navigate the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.